NAR Predicts a Surge of 5 Million Buyers If Rates Drop Under 6%

If Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6 Percent, NAR Projects 5 Million More Buyers Could Enter the Market

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) projects that if mortgage rates dip under 6 percent, about 5.5 million additional households could qualify to buy. Many of these are renters or families who’ve been sitting out due to affordability concerns.

When rates hover closer to 7 percent, monthly payments are simply too high for many would-be buyers. But once the 30-year fixed falls under that 6 percent line, affordability shifts dramatically. According to NAR, home sales could rise by 14 percent in 2026 compared to baseline forecasts if rates hit that level.

For Buyers
If you’ve been waiting for rates to drop, know that thousands of others are watching the same line. A dip under 6 percent could mean more competition, bidding wars, and fewer days on market. Getting pre-approved now puts you in a stronger position.

For Sellers
More buyers in the market means more eyes on your listing. Well-priced homes could see multiple offers, and higher buyer demand often leads to faster sales. If your property is prepared and priced strategically, this could be the opportunity to capture top value.

Local Market Snapshot: Lewiston, Grand Island, Tonawanda

• Lewiston (14092): Median sale price ~$374,500, up 22% year-over-year. Homes move quickly, often under 3 weeks.

• Grand Island (14072): Rated one of the most competitive areas in the region. Buyers are active, and inventory is tight.

• Tonawanda: Median list price ~$212,500 in the city and ~$249,500 in the town, both up about 6% year-over-year. North Tonawanda shows even stronger gains at $275,000, up over 10%.